Trump – The first 100 days

Assessing the Impact

As Donald Trump completes his first 100 days in office, a complex economic narrative emerges, one which challenges traditional approaches while attempting to address long-standing structural challenges. His presidency has introduced uncertainty and volatility, yet the broader economic context remains one of relative strength. This dynamic sets the current period apart from prior episodes of market turmoil.

Economic Context

The US faces critical economic pressures: a $2 trillion annual deficit, $36 trillion in national debt, and a declining manufacturing base. Trump’s approach represents an unconventional attempt to reimagine America’s economic positioning – neither entirely destructive nor completely transformative.

Yet, unlike previous periods of market unease, the economy today shows notable resilience. US unemployment remains near historic lows, corporate earnings continue to post positive growth, and balance sheets are broadly solid. Credit markets, while reflecting some spread widening, remain stable and not excessively leveraged. In many ways, the economy itself is not the root of the current turbulence. The singular variable creating uncertainty is Trump himself. Markets are reacting less to economic fundamentals and more to political risk.

Market Dynamics

Investors are navigating a landscape marked by uncertainty, but underpinned by strength. Unlike past episodes where systemic weakness drove market corrections, this time, economic indicators remain broadly constructive. The real concern is political instability. Trump’s unpredictable tactics have jolted investor confidence, even though the macroeconomic foundations remain intact. However, his motivations are clear: he is ultimately driven to prove that he can build a robust U.S. economy, contain inflation, and secure strategic wins in the global trade arena. With the 2026 mid-term election cycle beginning as early as Q1/Q2 next year, Trump cannot afford to alienate voters or lose his party’s slim Congressional majority. This political imperative may lead to quick policy “off ramps,” efforts to de-escalate tensions, and the search for visible wins – moves that could rapidly calm markets. Indeed, any signs of stabilising rhetoric or resolution to current crises may spark an equally swift rebound in both equity and fixed income markets.

Structure in Chaos

Trump’s economic policy is neither pure economic nationalism nor traditional globalism. It is a hybrid approach – an improvised balancing act between disruption and adaptation characterised by:

Challenging existing economic orthodoxy
Acknowledging global economic interdependence
Pursuing strategic economic repositioning

With the following possible outcomes:

Possible supply chain diversification
Increased domestic economic resilience
Risk of short-term market volatility
Long-term structural economic recalibration

Conclusion

Trump’s first 100 days signal a high stakes experiment in economic leadership. The market’s
turmoil is not a reflection of economic collapse but of political unpredictability. Yet, the core economy remains resilient.Should Trump pivot towards pragmatism – seeking quick wins, stabilising policy narratives, and presenting a clearer economic roadmap – the same markets that reacted sharply to uncertainty may respond just as swiftly to renewed clarity.

It is worth remembering the old adage, ‘time in the market and not timing the market’.